🏒 NHL Model

Updated 2026-10-18

Today's games 2026-10-18 · 2 games

CBJ 🔁 @ MIN 18:00 ET
🔁 CBJ on B2B — CBJ→MIN (~618 mi)
CBJ 40%60% MIN
Vegas lines (DK)
ML: CBJ +154 · MIN -185
Puck: CBJ +1.5 (-162) · MIN -1.5 (+136)
O/U 6.5 (o +102 / u -122)
Cover −1.5
H 36% · A 24%
Goalies
Cam Talbot (Unconfirmed) · Jesper Wallstedt (Confirmed)
Drivers
away on B2B
🎯 Model's bets 1h before puck (08:35)
ML MIN -185 B- · PL CBJ +1.5 (-162) B
CAR 🔁 @ CGY 20:00 ET
🔁 CAR on B2B — WPG→CGY (~746 mi) · 🏔️ altitude leg: CGY 3,400 ft
CAR 52%48% CGY
Vegas lines (DK)
ML: CAR -218 · CGY +180
Puck: CAR -1.5 (+114) · CGY +1.5 (-135)
O/U 6.5 (o +110 / u -130)
Cover −1.5
H 29% · A 31%
Goalies
TBD
Drivers
xG edge home (9%) · goalie edge away · away on B2B
🎯 Model's bets 1h before puck (08:35)
ML CAR -218 C- · PL CGY +1.5 (-135) A-

League news headlines, yesterday's takeaways, today's slate, injuries

📰 Headlines via ESPN

NHL Tonight: Previewing Blue Jackets-Wild, Hurricanes-Flames
Just two games on the schedule for hockey fans Sunday, but here's what you need to know.
2026-10-18
Blue Jackets take on the Wild following overtime victory
Columbus Blue Jackets (3-3, in the Metropolitan Division) vs. Minnesota Wild (5-2-1, in the Central Division)
2026-10-18
Penguins take losing streak into matchup with the Mammoth
Pittsburgh Penguins (3-5-1, in the Metropolitan Division) vs. Utah Mammoth (6-3, in the Central Division)
2026-10-18
Colorado visits Philadelphia after Lehkonen's 2-goal game
Colorado Avalanche (5-2-1, in the Central Division) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (1-6-3, in the Metropolitan Division)
2026-10-18
Carolina brings 7-game win streak into matchup against Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes (7-1-1, in the Metropolitan Division) vs. Calgary Flames (1-6, in the Pacific Division)
2026-10-18
Toronto takes losing streak into matchup with San Jose
San Jose Sharks (4-3-1, in the Pacific Division) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3-4-2, in the Atlantic Division)
2026-10-18
Rangers take home winning streak into matchup with the Ducks
Anaheim Ducks (4-3, in the Pacific Division) vs. New York Rangers (6-3-1, in the Metropolitan Division)
2026-10-18
Edmonton Oilers vs. Utah Mammoth: Game Highlights
Edmonton Oilers vs. Utah Mammoth: Game Highlights
2026-10-18
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights: Game Highlights
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights: Game Highlights
2026-10-18
McDavid has 2 goals and 3 assists in the Oilers' 6-2 romp over the Mammoth
— Connor McDavid had two goals and three assists and the Edmonton Oilers beat the Utah Mammoth 6-2 on Saturday night to split a home-and-home series.
2026-10-18

📊 Yesterday 2026-10-17 · 14 games

NJD 2 — 4 WSH
CAR 3 — 2 WPG
VAN 2 — 4 TBL
SEA 3 — 8 FLA
NYI 4 — 1 TOR
BUF 3 — 4 MTL
SJS 3 — 4 DET
OTT 1 — 3 PHI
NYR 0 — 1 CBJ
DAL 4 — 0 CHI
STL 2 — 5 NSH
BOS 4 — 1 LAK
EDM 6 — 2 UTA
PIT 2 — 6 VGK
→ Biggest upset: EDM beat UTA 6-2 as a 41% underdog by the model.
→ Back-to-back teams went 1-1 on the second night.
→ Highest scoring: SEA 3 - 8 FLA (11 goals).
→ Shutout: CBJ blanked NYR 0-1.
→ Shutout: DAL blanked CHI 4-0.
→ 4 of 14 games decided by one goal.

🔭 Today

CBJ 🔁 @ MIN 🔁 18:00 ET
Model: MIN 60% · DK: MIN -185
CAR 🔁 @ CGY 🔁 20:00 ET
Model: CGY 48% · DK: CAR -218

🏥 Injury updates via ESPN, last 30 days

Dallas Stars
Roope Hintz — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18)
Oskar Back — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Friday that Back broke his finger and will miss 4-6 weeks, Robert Tiff
David Perron — Out (2026-10-16) · out
Matt Duchene — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · Duchene will be out for approximately three months after undergoing surgery to repair a core injury,
Luke Krys — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
New York Islanders
Calum Ritchie — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18)
Matias Maccelli — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18) · Maccelli (lower body) won't return to Saturday's game versus the Maple Leafs.
Mathew Barzal — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · Barzal (knee) will not join the Islanders for their two-game road trip, Andrew Gross of Newsday repo
Alexander Romanov — Out (2026-10-07) · out
Ottawa Senators
Thomas Chabot — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18) · Chabot (undisclosed) won't return to Saturday's game versus the Flyers, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia
Jake Sanderson — Out (2026-10-17) · out
William Eklund — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · Eklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Post
Kurtis MacDermid — Injured Reserve (2026-09-28) · MacDermid (upper body) was moved to the injured non-roster list Monday.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Samuel Girard — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18)
Egor Chinakhov — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Trevor van Riemsdyk — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · ir
Justin Brazeau — Injured Reserve (2026-09-27) · Brazeau (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Penguins on Sunday.
Ryan Graves — Injured Reserve (2026-09-27) · Graves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Anaheim Ducks
Mikael Granlund — Day-To-Day (2026-10-17)
Ian Moore — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Head coach Joel Quenneville said Friday that Moore (lower body) is still "a ways from skating," Patr
Ryan Poehling — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Poehling (knee) is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain.
Troy Terry — Injured Reserve (2026-09-30) · Terry (hip) was moved from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Cavanagh
Boston Bruins
Pavel Zacha — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Chicago Blackhawks
Bowen Byram — Out (2026-10-17) · Byram (upper body) won't play against Dallas on Saturday, according to Tracey Myers of NHL.com.
Andrew Mangiapane — Injured Reserve (2026-10-07) · ir
Colorado Avalanche
Zachary L'Heureux — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Nicolas Roy — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Logan O'Connor — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · O'Connor (lower body/personal) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia
Georgii Merkulov — Injured Reserve (2026-09-28) · Merkulov (undisclosed) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday.
Minnesota Wild
Olli Maatta — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Jared Spurgeon — Out (2026-10-15) · out
Nico Sturm — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Sturm (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.
Marcus Foligno — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · ir
Filip Gustavsson — Injured Reserve (2026-10-09) · Gustavsson (hip) was placed on long-term injured reserve Friday.
Montreal Canadiens
Mike Matheson — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Florian Xhekaj — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · Xhekaj (lower body) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Sam Montembeault — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · ir
Ivan Demidov — Injured Reserve (2026-10-06) · Demidov (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Canadiens on Tuesday, per the NHL media si
Bryce Pickford — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Nashville Predators
Mavrik Bourque — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Philadelphia Flyers
Owen Tippett — Out (2026-10-17) · Tippett (upper body) won't play Saturday versus the Senators, Charlie O'Connor of PHLY Sports report
Cam York — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Rasmus Ristolainen — Injured Reserve (2026-10-14) · Ristolainen (upper body) won't travel with the Flyers ahead of Thursday's game against the Red Wings
Travis Konecny — Injured Reserve (2026-10-11) · Konecny (lower body) was placed on injured reserve Sunday, according to the NHL media site.
Nikita Grebenkin — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · Grebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Seattle Kraken
Brandon Montour — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Jacob Melanson — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · Melanson's upper-body injury was diagnosed Saturday as an anterior mediastinum hematoma with vascula
Ryan Lindgren — Injured Reserve (2026-10-08) · Lindgren (upper body) was placed on injured reserve by the Kraken on Thursday and is expected to mis
Jake O'Brien — Injured Reserve (2026-10-01) · O'Brien (lower body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Wednesday.
St. Louis Blues
Ross Johnston — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Torey Krug — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Krug (ankle) was placed on long-term injured reserve by the Blues on Monday, per PuckPedia.
Dillon Dube — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · ir
Alexey Toropchenko — Injured Reserve (2026-10-05) · ir
Tyler Tucker — Injured Reserve (2026-09-30) · Tucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednes
Toronto Maple Leafs
John Tavares — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · ir
Dakota Joshua — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · Joshua (abdomen) was sent to AHL Toronto on Friday for a conditioning stint.
Miles Wood — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · ir
Chris Tanev — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · The Maple Leafs announced Thursday that Tanev (lower body) is considered week-to-week, Mark Masters
Max Domi — Injured Reserve (2026-09-30) · Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per Puc
Vancouver Canucks
Marco Rossi — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Jack Thompson — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Akil Thomas — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Mackenzie MacEachern — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Thatcher Demko — Injured Reserve (2026-09-28) · Co-president of hockey operations Henrik Sedin said Monday that he hopes Demko (hip) will be ready t
Washington Capitals
Justin Sourdif — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Pierre-Luc Dubois — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · ir
Matt Roy — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Head coach Spencer Carbery said Friday that Roy (lower body) is questionable for Saturday's game aga
Rasmus Sandin — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · Sandin (knee) was placed on long-term injured reserve Monday.
Patrick Thomas — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Buffalo Sabres
Rasmus Dahlin — Out (2026-10-16) · out
Alex Lyon — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · Lyon (upper body) had a setback in his recovery and is without a timeline to return, the team announ
Matt Grzelcyk — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Grzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach L
Jason Zucker — Injured Reserve (2026-10-06) · Zucker (abdomen) participated in Tuesday's morning skate but is still a few weeks away from returnin
Conor Timmins — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · Timmins (lower body) doesn't have a timeline for his return yet, according to Heather Engel of NHL.c
Carolina Hurricanes
Taylor Hall — Out (2026-10-16) · Head coach Rod Brind'Amour said Friday that Hall (upper body) is considered week-to-week, Chip Alexa
Seth Jarvis — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Jarvis (shoulder) said Friday that he plans to travel with the Hurricanes during their upcoming five
Jordan Staal — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · ir
Alexander Nikishin — Injured Reserve (2026-10-14) · Nikishin (contract dispute) is on the Hurricanes' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site W
Edmonton Oilers
Jason Dickinson — Out (2026-10-16) · out
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Nugent-Hopkins (lower body) might be available for Thursday's game against Carolina, Jason Gregor of
Alec Regula — Injured Reserve (2026-10-01) · Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Matt Savoie — Injured Reserve (2026-10-01) · Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Frederik Andersen — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on
Built 2026-10-18 07:51 ET. Headlines and injuries via ESPN; takeaways auto-generated from scores and the model's logged probabilities.

Best bets ranked by model-vs-market gap, with the reasoning

Season P&L: -5.4u (4-9 on 13 graded best bets · 1u flat stakes at logged DK lines)
#1 of 1 — CGY +180 @ CAR 🔁 D- 20:00 ET
Model prices CGY at 48%; DK's +180 implies 34%. That's a 13.2% gap between our number and the market's.
The xG ledger favors CGY by 9% — a tailwind for this pick. Goaltending is a real edge for CAR in the model — working against it. CAR is on the second night of a back-to-back (~746 mi WPG→CGY, altitude leg (CGY 3,400 ft)) — rest favors CGY. No confirmed starters in our feed yet — goalie inputs are team-level until they land. Double-digit gap: this is the model's strongest kind of disagreement.
Ranked by the gap between model win probability and DK no-vig implied probability — rank is the size of the disagreement, the grade chip is the raw win probability. Experimental — the board needs ~100 graded plays before these mean anything.

Value board model's confident disagreements with Vegas

💎 CAR@CGY 20:00 ET home — model 48% D- vs DK +180 (34%) · gap 13% 🔁CAR B2B (~746 mi WPG→CGY 🏔️CGY 3,400 ft)
Value board record: 4-9 (31% · avg prob 47%)
Closing line value: line moved toward our number in 1/4 plays (avg +0.8pp)
Season P&L: -5.4u on 13 graded plays (4-9, 1u flat stakes at logged DK lines)
Only games where our win prob beats DK's no-vig implied prob by 5+ pts, ranked by gap. Dogs and favorites both qualify — confidence is the size of the disagreement. Experimental until ~100 graded plays.

Line movement DK moneyline trail, snapshotted every ~2h to puck drop

CBJ@MIN (+0.0pp to home since 08:35)
+154/-185 08:35
away/home moneyline at each snapshot
CAR@CGY (+0.0pp to home since 08:35)
-218/+180 08:35
away/home moneyline at each snapshot

Season record logged daily, graded on finals

Moneyline: 22-5 (81% · avg prob 57.6%) · +10.4u
Puck line: 18-9 (67%) · +3.9u
1u flat stakes at logged DK odds. Model's side pick per game, logged before puck drop and graded on finals. For calibration, not betting advice.
Puck-line pick logic corrected 2026-10-18: now takes the higher-cover side of the listed ±1.5 line (earlier picks compared the two teams' win-by-2+ rates, which mispriced the +1.5 side).

Recent games

DateGameML pickPL pickCloseScore
10-16BOS@ANAaway 53% C-
-108		W +0.9uhome +1.5 69% B+
-285		L -1.0uML BOS -112 · ANA -108
PL -1.5 (+240) · +1.5 (-298)		4-2
10-17NJD@WSHhome 50% D+
-125		W +0.8uhome 31% D-
+210		W +2.1uML NJD -102 · WSH -118
PL +1.5 (-270) · -1.5 (+220)		2-4
10-17CAR@WPGaway 57% C
-185		W +0.5uaway 34% D-
+142		W +1.4uML CAR -205 · WPG +170
PL -1.5 (+130) · +1.5 (-155)		3-2
10-17VAN@TBLhome 67% B+
-395		W +0.3uhome 41% D-
-162		W +0.6uML VAN +310 · TBL -395
PL +1.5 (+136) · -1.5 (-162)		2-4
10-17SEA@FLAhome 55% C
-185		W +0.5uaway +1.5 66% B+
-162		L -1.0uML SEA +154 · FLA -185
PL +1.5 (-162) · -1.5 (+136)		3-8
10-17NYI@TORaway 59% C+
+114		W +1.1uaway +1.5 75% A
-218		W +0.5uML NYI +114 · TOR -135
PL +1.5 (-218) · -1.5 (+180)		4-1
10-17BUF@MTLhome 52% C-
-142		W +0.7uaway +1.5 69% B+
-205		W +0.5uML BUF +120 · MTL -142
PL +1.5 (-205) · -1.5 (+170)		3-4
10-17SJS@DEThome 64% B
-135		W +0.7uaway +1.5 61% B-
-192		W +0.5uML SJS +124 · DET -148
PL +1.5 (-198) · -1.5 (+164)		3-4
10-17OTT@PHIaway 56% C
-155		L -1.0uhome +1.5 67% B+
-205		W +0.5uML OTT -155 · PHI +130
PL -1.5 (+170) · +1.5 (-205)		1-3
10-17NYR@CBJhome 57% C
-135		W +0.7uaway +1.5 65% B
-225		W +0.4uML NYR +114 · CBJ -135
PL +1.5 (-225) · -1.5 (+185)		0-1
10-17DAL@CHIaway 61% B-
-198		W +0.5uhome +1.5 64% B
-142		L -1.0uML DAL -218 · CHI +180
PL -1.5 (+120) · +1.5 (-142)		4-0
10-17STL@NSHhome 51% C-
-105		W +1.0uhome +1.5 71% A-
-285		W +0.4uML STL -115 · NSH -105
PL -1.5 (+230) · +1.5 (-285)		2-5
10-17BOS@LAKhome 57% C
—		Lhome 35% D-
—		L—4-1
10-17EDM@UTAhome 59% C+
-135		L -1.0uaway +1.5 64% B
-205		W +0.5uML EDM +120 · UTA -142
PL +1.5 (-205) · -1.5 (+170)		6-2
10-17PIT@VGKhome 65% B
-238		W +0.4uaway +1.5 65% B
-135		L -1.0uML PIT +170 · VGK -205
PL +1.5 (-135) · -1.5 (+114)		2-6

NHL Model v1

Expected goals (xG) is the efficiency core — the hockey analogue of EPA. Honest probabilities, walk-forward tested before wiring. Totals excluded after backtesting showed no signal.
P(home win) = sigmoid(0.133 − 4.177·xGdiff + 0.347·goalie − 0.175·B2Bhome + 0.324·B2Baway)
Walk-forward 2022–26 (n=3,854): 56.6% winner accuracy vs 54.3% always-home baseline. Puck-line cover = P(win) × historical 2+ goal margin rate (home 60.9%, away 58.9%). Inputs: current-season 5v5 xG% regressed to prior season, team goalie GSAA shrunk to prior until ~15 games, rest flags. Starting goalies shown from DailyFaceoff; model uses team goalie aggregate until starter-specific GSAA is backtested and approved.

Early-season caveats

October–November inputs are heavily regressed toward last season — expect conservative probabilities and more coin-flip games until ~15 games played. Goalie quality takes longest to stabilize.

Value board

Flags games where model prob beats DK no-vig implied prob by 5+ pts. Tracked as a forward experiment — the NFL backtest showed model-vs-market gaps were coin flips, so this stays experimental until ~100 graded plays. Closing line value (did the market move toward our number?) is the earliest honest signal.