🏒 NHL Model

Updated 2026-10-17

Today's games 2026-10-17 · 2 games

EDM @ UTA
EDM 41%59% UTA
Vegas lines (DK)
ML: EDM +124 · UTA -148
Puck: EDM +1.5 (-205) · UTA -1.5 (+170)
O/U 6.5 (o -122 / u +102)
Cover −1.5
H 36% · A 24%
Goalies
TBD
Drivers
xG edge away (3%) · goalie edge home
🎯 Model's bets 1h before puck (16:35)
ML UTA -142 C+ · PL EDM +1.5 (-205) B
PIT 🔁 @ VGK
🔁 PIT on B2B — COL→VGK (~608 mi) · 🏔️ altitude leg: COL 5,280 ft
PIT 35%65% VGK
Vegas lines (DK)
ML: PIT +180 · VGK -218
Puck: PIT +1.5 (-130) · VGK -1.5 (+110)
O/U 6.5 (o -122 / u +102)
Cover −1.5
H 40% · A 21%
Goalies
Sergei Murashov (Confirmed) · Adin Hill (Confirmed)
Drivers
xG edge away (3%) · away on B2B
🎯 Model's bets 1h before puck (12:35)
ML VGK -205 B · PL PIT +1.5 (-135) B-

League news headlines, yesterday's takeaways, today's slate, injuries

📰 Headlines via ESPN

Caufield scores his second goal in OT to lift Canadiens over Sabres 4-3
— Cole Caufield scored his second goal of the game 54 seconds into overtime to lift the Montreal Canadiens over the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 on Saturday night.
2026-10-18
New York Rangers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets: Game Highlights
New York Rangers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets: Game Highlights
2026-10-18
San Jose Sharks vs. Detroit Red Wings: Game Highlights
San Jose Sharks vs. Detroit Red Wings: Game Highlights
2026-10-18
Still awaiting trade, Connor Hellebuyck could rejoin Jets when suspension ends
Still awaiting a potential trade, Winnipeg players are preparing for difficult conversations should star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, a former NHL MVP and three-time Vezina Trophy winner, rejoin the Jets next week when
2026-10-18
Ottawa Senators vs. Philadelphia Flyers: Game Highlights
Ottawa Senators vs. Philadelphia Flyers: Game Highlights
2026-10-18
Lucas Raymond scores in shootout as Red Wings rally for 4-3 win over Sharks
— Lucas Raymond scored the only goal during the shootout and the Detroit Red Wings rallied for a 4-3 victory over the San Jose Sharks on Saturday night.
2026-10-18
Ehlers’ power-play winner lifts Hurricanes past Jets 3-2 for 7th straight win
— Nikolaj Ehlers scored a power-play goal 6:43 into the third period to lift the Carolina Hurricanes to their seventh straight victory, 3-2 over the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday.
2026-10-18
Bo Horvat scores winner and adds assist in Islanders' 4-1 win over Maple Leafs
— Bo Horvat scored the winner and added an assist to help the New York Islanders beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1 on Saturday night.
2026-10-18
Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks: Game Highlights
Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks: Game Highlights
2026-10-18
Oettinger has 3rd shutout of season, Hyry scores twice in Stars' 4-0 win over Blackhawks
— Jake Oettinger made 19 saves for his NHL-leading third shutout in six games, Arttu Hyry scored twice and the Dallas Stars beat the Chicago Blackhawks 4-0 on Saturday night.
2026-10-18

📊 Yesterday 2026-10-16 · 2 games

PIT 2 — 5 COL
BOS 4 — 2 ANA
→ Highest scoring: PIT 2 - 5 COL (7 goals).

🔭 Today

EDM @ UTA 22:00 ET
Model: UTA 59% · DK: UTAH -148
PIT 🔁 @ VGK 🔁 22:00 ET
Model: VGK 65% · DK: VGK -218

🏥 Injury updates via ESPN, last 30 days

Dallas Stars
Roope Hintz — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18)
Oskar Back — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Friday that Back broke his finger and will miss 4-6 weeks, Robert Tiff
David Perron — Out (2026-10-16) · out
Matt Duchene — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · Duchene will be out for approximately three months after undergoing surgery to repair a core injury,
Luke Krys — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
New York Islanders
Calum Ritchie — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18)
Matias Maccelli — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18) · Maccelli (lower body) won't return to Saturday's game versus the Maple Leafs.
Mathew Barzal — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · Barzal (knee) will not join the Islanders for their two-game road trip, Andrew Gross of Newsday repo
Alexander Romanov — Out (2026-10-07) · out
Ottawa Senators
Thomas Chabot — Day-To-Day (2026-10-18) · Chabot (undisclosed) won't return to Saturday's game versus the Flyers, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia
Jake Sanderson — Out (2026-10-17) · out
William Eklund — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · Eklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Post
Kurtis MacDermid — Injured Reserve (2026-09-28) · MacDermid (upper body) was moved to the injured non-roster list Monday.
Anaheim Ducks
Mikael Granlund — Day-To-Day (2026-10-17)
Ian Moore — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Head coach Joel Quenneville said Friday that Moore (lower body) is still "a ways from skating," Patr
Ryan Poehling — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Poehling (knee) is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain.
Troy Terry — Injured Reserve (2026-09-30) · Terry (hip) was moved from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, Zach Cavanagh
Boston Bruins
Pavel Zacha — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Chicago Blackhawks
Bowen Byram — Out (2026-10-17) · Byram (upper body) won't play against Dallas on Saturday, according to Tracey Myers of NHL.com.
Andrew Mangiapane — Injured Reserve (2026-10-07) · ir
Colorado Avalanche
Zachary L'Heureux — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Nicolas Roy — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Logan O'Connor — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · O'Connor (lower body/personal) was transferred to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia
Georgii Merkulov — Injured Reserve (2026-09-28) · Merkulov (undisclosed) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday.
Minnesota Wild
Olli Maatta — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Jared Spurgeon — Out (2026-10-15) · out
Nico Sturm — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Sturm (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.
Marcus Foligno — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · ir
Filip Gustavsson — Injured Reserve (2026-10-09) · Gustavsson (hip) was placed on long-term injured reserve Friday.
Montreal Canadiens
Mike Matheson — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Florian Xhekaj — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · Xhekaj (lower body) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Sam Montembeault — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · ir
Ivan Demidov — Injured Reserve (2026-10-06) · Demidov (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Canadiens on Tuesday, per the NHL media si
Bryce Pickford — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Nashville Predators
Mavrik Bourque — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Philadelphia Flyers
Owen Tippett — Out (2026-10-17) · Tippett (upper body) won't play Saturday versus the Senators, Charlie O'Connor of PHLY Sports report
Cam York — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Rasmus Ristolainen — Injured Reserve (2026-10-14) · Ristolainen (upper body) won't travel with the Flyers ahead of Thursday's game against the Red Wings
Travis Konecny — Injured Reserve (2026-10-11) · Konecny (lower body) was placed on injured reserve Sunday, according to the NHL media site.
Nikita Grebenkin — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · Grebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Egor Chinakhov — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Trevor van Riemsdyk — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · ir
Justin Brazeau — Injured Reserve (2026-09-27) · Brazeau (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Penguins on Sunday.
Ryan Graves — Injured Reserve (2026-09-27) · Graves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Seattle Kraken
Brandon Montour — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Jacob Melanson — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · Melanson's upper-body injury was diagnosed Saturday as an anterior mediastinum hematoma with vascula
Ryan Lindgren — Injured Reserve (2026-10-08) · Lindgren (upper body) was placed on injured reserve by the Kraken on Thursday and is expected to mis
Jake O'Brien — Injured Reserve (2026-10-01) · O'Brien (lower body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Wednesday.
St. Louis Blues
Ross Johnston — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Torey Krug — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Krug (ankle) was placed on long-term injured reserve by the Blues on Monday, per PuckPedia.
Dillon Dube — Injured Reserve (2026-10-10) · ir
Alexey Toropchenko — Injured Reserve (2026-10-05) · ir
Tyler Tucker — Injured Reserve (2026-09-30) · Tucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednes
Toronto Maple Leafs
John Tavares — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · ir
Dakota Joshua — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · Joshua (abdomen) was sent to AHL Toronto on Friday for a conditioning stint.
Miles Wood — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · ir
Chris Tanev — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · The Maple Leafs announced Thursday that Tanev (lower body) is considered week-to-week, Mark Masters
Max Domi — Injured Reserve (2026-09-30) · Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per Puc
Vancouver Canucks
Marco Rossi — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Jack Thompson — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Akil Thomas — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Mackenzie MacEachern — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Thatcher Demko — Injured Reserve (2026-09-28) · Co-president of hockey operations Henrik Sedin said Monday that he hopes Demko (hip) will be ready t
Washington Capitals
Justin Sourdif — Out (2026-10-17) · out
Pierre-Luc Dubois — Injured Reserve (2026-10-17) · ir
Matt Roy — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Head coach Spencer Carbery said Friday that Roy (lower body) is questionable for Saturday's game aga
Rasmus Sandin — Injured Reserve (2026-10-12) · Sandin (knee) was placed on long-term injured reserve Monday.
Patrick Thomas — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · ir-nr
Buffalo Sabres
Rasmus Dahlin — Out (2026-10-16) · out
Alex Lyon — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · Lyon (upper body) had a setback in his recovery and is without a timeline to return, the team announ
Matt Grzelcyk — Injured Reserve (2026-10-13) · Grzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach L
Jason Zucker — Injured Reserve (2026-10-06) · Zucker (abdomen) participated in Tuesday's morning skate but is still a few weeks away from returnin
Conor Timmins — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · Timmins (lower body) doesn't have a timeline for his return yet, according to Heather Engel of NHL.c
Carolina Hurricanes
Taylor Hall — Out (2026-10-16) · Head coach Rod Brind'Amour said Friday that Hall (upper body) is considered week-to-week, Chip Alexa
Seth Jarvis — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Jarvis (shoulder) said Friday that he plans to travel with the Hurricanes during their upcoming five
Jordan Staal — Injured Reserve (2026-10-15) · ir
Alexander Nikishin — Injured Reserve (2026-10-14) · Nikishin (contract dispute) is on the Hurricanes' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site W
Edmonton Oilers
Jason Dickinson — Out (2026-10-16) · out
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — Injured Reserve (2026-10-16) · Nugent-Hopkins (lower body) might be available for Thursday's game against Carolina, Jason Gregor of
Alec Regula — Injured Reserve (2026-10-01) · Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Matt Savoie — Injured Reserve (2026-10-01) · Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Frederik Andersen — Injured Reserve (2026-09-29) · Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on
Built 2026-10-17 22:30 ET. Headlines and injuries via ESPN; takeaways auto-generated from scores and the model's logged probabilities.

Best bets ranked by model-vs-market gap, with the reasoning

Season P&L: -5.2u (3-8 on 11 graded best bets · 1u flat stakes at logged DK lines)
#1 of 6 — NYI +114 @ TOR C+
Model prices NYI at 59%; DK's +114 implies 45%. That's a 13.8% gap between our number and the market's.
Line hasn't budged since 08:35 (+114) — the gap has sat there all day. Double-digit gap: this is the model's strongest kind of disagreement.
#2 of 6 — VAN +310 @ TBL D-
Model prices VAN at 33%; DK's +310 implies 23%. That's a 9.5% gap between our number and the market's.
Line hasn't budged since 08:35 (+310) — the gap has sat there all day. A solid-sized gap, comfortably over the bar.
#3 of 6 — DET -135 @ SJS B
Model prices DET at 64%; DK's -135 implies 55%. That's a 8.8% gap between our number and the market's.
Line has moved from -135 (08:35) to -148 (18:35) — the market has drifted, widening this gap. A solid-sized gap, comfortably over the bar.
#4 of 6 — PIT 🔁 +170 @ VGK D-
Model prices PIT at 43%; DK's +170 implies 36%. That's a 7.2% gap between our number and the market's.
The xG inputs lean slightly, not enough to decide anything on their own. Goaltending is a wash in the model. PIT is on the second night of a back-to-back (~608 mi COL→VGK, altitude leg (COL 5,280 ft)) — the pick is winning despite the rest spot, not because of it. You're fading home ice, which the model prices modestly — most of this gap is the market overcharging for it. In net: Sergei Murashov (Confirmed), Adin Hill (Confirmed). Line has moved from +195 (08:35) to +170 (12:35) — the market has drifted, widening this gap. A solid-sized gap, comfortably over the bar.
#5 of 6 — SEA +154 @ FLA D-
Model prices SEA at 45%; DK's +154 implies 38%. That's a 6.9% gap between our number and the market's.
Line hasn't budged since 08:35 (+154) — the gap has sat there all day. Just over the 5-point bar — a marginal qualifier, sized accordingly in your head.
#6 of 6 — WPG +154 @ CAR D-
Model prices WPG at 43%; DK's +154 implies 38%. That's a 5.4% gap between our number and the market's.
Line has moved from +154 (08:35) to +170 (14:35) — the market has drifted, widening this gap. Just over the 5-point bar — a marginal qualifier, sized accordingly in your head.
Ranked by the gap between model win probability and DK no-vig implied probability — rank is the size of the disagreement, the grade chip is the raw win probability. Experimental — the board needs ~100 graded plays before these mean anything.

Value board model's confident disagreements with Vegas

💎 NYI@TOR away — model 59% C+ vs DK +114 (45%) · gap 14%
💎 VAN@TBL away — model 33% D- vs DK +310 (23%) · gap 10%
💎 SJS@DET home — model 64% B vs DK -135 (55%) · gap 9%
💎 PIT@VGK away — model 43% D- vs DK +170 (36%) · gap 7% 🔁PIT B2B (~608 mi COL→VGK 🏔️COL 5,280 ft)
💎 SEA@FLA away — model 45% D- vs DK +154 (38%) · gap 7%
💎 CAR@WPG home — model 43% D- vs DK +154 (38%) · gap 5%
Value board record: 3-8 (27% · avg prob 46%)
Closing line value: line moved toward our number in 1/4 plays (avg +0.8pp)
Season P&L: -5.2u on 11 graded plays (3-8, 1u flat stakes at logged DK lines)
Only games where our win prob beats DK's no-vig implied prob by 5+ pts, ranked by gap. Dogs and favorites both qualify — confidence is the size of the disagreement. Experimental until ~100 graded plays.

Line movement DK moneyline trail, snapshotted every ~2h to puck drop

EDM@UTA (+1.2pp to home since 08:35)
+114/-135 08:35 → +114/-135 12:35 → +114/-135 14:35 → +120/-142 16:35
away/home moneyline at each snapshot
PIT@VGK (-3.0pp to home since 08:35)
+195/-238 08:35 → +180/-218 10:35 → +170/-205 12:35
away/home moneyline at each snapshot

Season record logged daily, graded on finals

Moneyline: 17-2 (89% · avg prob 57.6%) · +8.9u
Puck line: 12-7 (63%) · +2.1u
1u flat stakes at logged DK odds. Model's side pick per game, logged before puck drop and graded on finals. For calibration, not betting advice.
Puck-line pick logic corrected 2026-10-18: now takes the higher-cover side of the listed ±1.5 line (earlier picks compared the two teams' win-by-2+ rates, which mispriced the +1.5 side).

Recent games

DateGameML pickPL pickCloseScore
10-15NYR@NJDhome 52% C-
-130		W +0.8uaway +1.5 68% B+
-218		L -1.0u—1-7
10-15PHI@DEThome 62% B-
-142		W +0.7uaway +1.5 62% B-
-225		W +0.4u—1-2
10-15WPG@CHIaway 55% C
-125		L -1.0uhome +1.5 68% B+
-238		W +0.4u—3-4
10-15SJS@NSHhome 59% C+
-130		L -1.0uaway +1.5 64% B
-218		W +0.5u—3-2
10-15STL@MINhome 56% C
-142		W +0.7uaway +1.5 66% B+
-218		W +0.5u—4-5
10-15UTA@EDMaway 53% C-
-115		W +0.9uhome +1.5 69% B+
-270		L -1.0u—4-2
10-15CGY@VGKhome 64% B
-285		W +0.4uaway +1.5 61% B-
-118		L -1.0u—2-6
10-16PIT@COLhome 59% C+
-205		W +0.5uaway +1.5 64% B
-142		L -1.0uML PIT +170 · COL -205
PL +1.5 (-142) · -1.5 (+120)		2-5
10-16BOS@ANAaway 53% C-
-108		W +0.9uhome +1.5 69% B+
-285		L -1.0uML BOS -112 · ANA -108
PL -1.5 (+240) · +1.5 (-298)		4-2
10-17NJD@WSHhome 50% D+
-125		W +0.8uhome 31% D-
+210		W +2.1uML NJD -102 · WSH -118
PL +1.5 (-270) · -1.5 (+220)		2-4
10-17CAR@WPGaway 57% C
-185		W +0.5uaway 34% D-
+142		W +1.4uML CAR -205 · WPG +170
PL -1.5 (+130) · +1.5 (-155)		3-2
10-17VAN@TBLhome 67% B+
-395		W +0.3uhome 41% D-
-162		W +0.6uML VAN +310 · TBL -395
PL +1.5 (+136) · -1.5 (-162)		2-4
10-17SEA@FLAhome 55% C
-185		W +0.5uaway +1.5 66% B+
-162		L -1.0uML SEA +154 · FLA -185
PL +1.5 (-162) · -1.5 (+136)		3-8
10-17NYI@TORaway 59% C+
+114		W +1.1uaway +1.5 75% A
-218		W +0.5uML NYI +114 · TOR -135
PL +1.5 (-218) · -1.5 (+180)		4-1
10-17DAL@CHIaway 61% B-
-198		W +0.5uhome +1.5 64% B
-142		L -1.0uML DAL -218 · CHI +180
PL -1.5 (+120) · +1.5 (-142)		4-0

NHL Model v1

Expected goals (xG) is the efficiency core — the hockey analogue of EPA. Honest probabilities, walk-forward tested before wiring. Totals excluded after backtesting showed no signal.
P(home win) = sigmoid(0.133 − 4.177·xGdiff + 0.347·goalie − 0.175·B2Bhome + 0.324·B2Baway)
Walk-forward 2022–26 (n=3,854): 56.6% winner accuracy vs 54.3% always-home baseline. Puck-line cover = P(win) × historical 2+ goal margin rate (home 60.9%, away 58.9%). Inputs: current-season 5v5 xG% regressed to prior season, team goalie GSAA shrunk to prior until ~15 games, rest flags. Starting goalies shown from DailyFaceoff; model uses team goalie aggregate until starter-specific GSAA is backtested and approved.

Early-season caveats

October–November inputs are heavily regressed toward last season — expect conservative probabilities and more coin-flip games until ~15 games played. Goalie quality takes longest to stabilize.

Value board

Flags games where model prob beats DK no-vig implied prob by 5+ pts. Tracked as a forward experiment — the NFL backtest showed model-vs-market gaps were coin flips, so this stays experimental until ~100 graded plays. Closing line value (did the market move toward our number?) is the earliest honest signal.